Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Absolutely Salivating....



Yes indeed i am as wet as the lady above in anticipation for ROYAL ASCOT next week...yes you can indeed tell Cheltenham to go and royally fuck ones self as this is the week that defines racing ( and glorious goodwood ) ...A week when special things can and do indeed happen, we see more stars than a variety weekend special and just glancing thru the early Ante Post markets makes me feel rather giddy , yes im sure not all will line up but the thought that they might is good enough.....

Lets have a look at the 17th to start with...3 Races to highlight ,

Firstly we have the KINGS STAND STAKES for the sprinters , a brilliant race that always attracts the creme de le creme and this year is no different and with what should be ideal racing ground im very excited.
The top two in the betting are HOT STREAK and SHEA SHEA and both are brilliant, Hot Streak is the up n comer but has already shown some fabulous speed with a 3rd in the Middle Park and a 2nd in the Palace House Stakes and then routing a top quality field in the Temple House Stakes and will have nothing to fear from Pearl Secret or any of those re opposing Hot Streak is one seriously impressive beast and can race on any ground from soft to firm and is in line to become Europes dominant sprinter....very exciting indeed.
Shea Shea has done it all , got the T Shirt and made the video and even at 7 is still a major force to be reckoned with plus has the experience edge as he was a very close 2nd in this very race last year just getting caught on the line by the majestic Sole Power and im sure MDK will have this cherry ripe to run another big big race.
Sole Power himself is a very good sprinter and on his day and with the right conditions can be as good as any in the world...however he does need things to drop right and is prone to throwing a few races away so is not as reliable as a few others and is too short at 7.0.
Maarek is ground dependent and i doubt very much indeed if he will get it and the remainder although toop class Handicappers just dont have that certain   je ne sais quoi that is needed to win a race of this stature and 7 of the last ten running's have seen a single digit winner.
In Summary i wouldn't get too excited about the Ante Post prices at 6.2 as last years went 11/4 > 4/1 then 8/1 Bar but i would have fucking loved some of the 14/1 that was available earlier on Hot Streak and i cant see past the top three in the betting for the winner.

The 2nd race to look at will be the QUEEN ANNE STAKES and here we get to see the return of the king...straight from Sparta itself..its King TORONADO the King whose crown was pinched whilst he was asleep during the Juddmonte a race you can draw a big squiggly line thru as tho it never happened...it was a nothingness...a racing Faux Pas , his true form lay in the race preceding it the Sussex Stakes where he beat the brilliant Dawn Approach , humiliated Declaration of War and pissed all over a group of listed class sorts which was just deserts having been beaten by Dawn Approach in the Guineas and then was given a right old bump n a barge in the St James Palace stakes ( 4th and 2nd )....Hannon will have this spot on and on perfect ground he will take a world of beating but the 2.44 offers fucking zilch ;-(.
Can we look elsewhere...to be honest a case can be made for this being utter folly but there are some lovely types looking to get a race in and they include his stablemates OLYMPIC GLORY now racing over his favored trip on his ideal ground and the other mate Montiridge who is just a rung or two below these Olympic Glory is a best priced 8.8 currently and thats a price i like as i have it in at 6/1 so im getting some juice there, SOFT FALLING RAIN is only interesting at 13.5 ( Paddy Power only offering 7/1 ) and has the form to get involved but if all are racing true to form then it would have to find at least 10lb of improvement...but thats the thing all reviews are generally with the pre conception that everything will be run like a computer made model but the truth is nothing in horse racing is ever that simple ( rarely ) but we must try to stick to some level of reality when making assessments and that's my call although if i see some obvious value elsewhere i will take it.
SKY LANTERN is a filly i just love and should have gone through last year unbeaten ( not including Hong Kong )  as it was mugged by Hot Snap in the Nell Gwynn before winning the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes and then got chewed by Elusive Kate and dragged across the track before striking right back in the Sun Chariot now im not convinced this will run but if it does or you can get " no run money back " then the 20/1 with Paddy Power is the top price ( 10/1 with Billy Hill ) and a bloody good bet.
In Summary the price on the fav is too skinny and although Olympic Glory is tempting i would wait , the 20/1 on Sky Lantern is def the bet for me Ante Post...thats a cracker...and you can readily forget the rest at this stage.

Race Nos 3 and the final piece of analysis from me tonight is the ST JAMES PALACE STAKES and the 40/1 on the Derby Victor is the bet to have !!!.....Australia at 40/1...smash it !!.....in all honesty this is a ruse as i see no way it runs here as its my view that it will be the Irish Derby Next and then a rest until August with maybe one more run before the Arc.
Seriously this looks a straight dogfight between KINGMAN ( Best priced 11/10 with Skybet / Unibet ) and Night of Thunder who bested him in the 2000 Guineas.
Now its my view that that Night of Thunder got a bit lucky there, got a toe through the race , watched others cut there throats and pounced when it was right and in a true run straight mile with no splits or silliness then Kingman wins as its my opinion that he is the best miler in Europe right now and im struggling to see anything beating him and i will make this my Nap for the week....shovel every penny you can find and lump on i have this priced up at 4/5 so anything odds against in my book is value.
If Karakontie was to take his place then i feel the 65/1 is a bloody good price regardless , ran over his weakest trip lto and duly stuffed but back over a mile where he won the French Guineas this could easily get involved and at that price it becomes a bet to nothing...
In Summary...KINGMAN WINS...NAP OF THE WEEK.

So there we have it the 17th with three hot races covered early doors and a nice treble beckons ?....Hot Streak / Toronado / Kingman.....thoughts ?...answers on a postcard....let me know if you want any other days looking at....;-)..ttfn x.

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