Saturday, 4 June 2016

Derby Day

Good Morning World

Well here it is the creme de le creme ( or so they say ) of the flat calendar, the Investec DERBY a race  over 1m4f for the boys ( Minding won a rather turgid looking Oaks yesterday for the girls ) and we have last years winning trainer in with another decent shout and the usual shotgun approach from AoB in what looks like a very open Derby.

I will also cast my eye over the remainder of the card and throw in a couple of extra NH races which appeal ( Namely my specialty Novice Hurdles ).

So lets take a peek at today's action.

EPSOM Derby Day.

14:00
We start off with a decent looking stakes race over 1m2f with a decent 15 runners ( so often never quite the 16 you need for 4 places in traditionally betting ).

CARTAGO looks a decent EW punt in the first a horse that is still improving and learning and comes in here in good heart having been touched off by a derby hopeful lto after being squeezed for room when wanting to make a run, there are a hatful of others to consider here including the 300k Stoute runner Poets Word ,Dark Devil and the improving Banish however at 5/1 i feel that Cartago is an EW bet to nothing and is one i would def have in some EW accas.

RESULT:
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14:35
Next up is the Princess Elizabeth Stakes over 1m for the Fillies and this C1 has attracted a disappointing field.
Just the 7 runners and i see no point in going against SAYANNA ( NAP ).
With the highest official rating on show at 103 Sayanna can afford to even run a little below par and still win as i rate this myself at 116 with further scope for improvement as we got no where near the bottom of this one yet although its a slight concern that a filly with such obvious ability has so far swerved all nationality of Guineas and is running a short time before Royal Ascot...bad planning or just a bully? either way it cannot be over looked today.

RESULT:
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15:10
The CORONATION CUP next over 1m4f for all ages and in truth this could be a bit of a humdinger as we have at least 3 very top class sorts involved propped up with two others who could if things drop right get involved.

lets look at the three main protagonists and from where imo the winner will be found.

FOUND - A very classy Galileo filly who will be up there and will def be involved in the finish however since winning a G3 over an extended trip she has since shown on 4 separate occasions that at 1m2f she lacks any sort of finish she kinda stays on remorselessly rather than having any real kick and is very vulnerable to anything with any sort of finish or a proper stayer and for me i think 3rd is the best this will manage.

POSTPONED - This is without doubt the most improved in the race and in all honesty the likeliest winner having rattled up a tremendous four timer including a lto destruction of Duramente in the Sheema Classic which added further Gloss to an exhilarating performance when winning the King George from Eagle Top and Romsdal however it must also be noted that both Eagle Top and Romsdal are perpetual under performers who routinely sulk in a race and as good as that form looks to be its a glorified hcap which was further illustrated when winning the Prix Foy beating the likes of Spiritjim who has done fuck all since so in a decent race with a fav that for me is still just a high quality handicapper that is priced at 10/11 i will look elsewhere and in truth for the layers i think this is a knocking laybet at odds on or even money as you have some great horses running for you.

SIMPLE VERSE - This for me looks to be the winner or at least imo is the best bet at 5/1 as a place looks nailed on and an EW double with Cartago looks very tasty indeed ( Ev/Ev the place..not to be sniffed at ).
A proper stayer that will not be wanting should the Varian pacemaker make this a proper gallop a filly that has shown bags of class when winning the champion stakes and has run 2nd in various top quality events including the likes of the St Leger , quite Simply i think that Even money FAP for this is a million times better bet than Even money on Postponed to win.

RESULT:
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15:45
The DASH is exactly what it states on the tin a flying 5f and with 18 runners this is deliciously wide open.
With so many in the race having bits of form against each other and most of them taking it in turns to win i think a chance should be taken on MALJAA to prove he has that bit of class that stands him apart and at a top priced 9/1 offers extremely good value.
I didnt like his fto run this season but you can always slightly forgive a seasonal effort and if fitter add more in tuned has every chance on form but he will have to improve and step up now on ground he should relish.

RESULT :
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16:30
The DERBY.

A race that over the years has produced some heroic winners and some true world beaters in the shape of Sea the Stars , Galileo and Reference Point but has generally produced not much more than one season wonders as they want the coin from breeding and a few duds in between like High Rise, Oath and Pour Moi.

This years renewal looks wide open in truth with any number having a genuine chance as this years crop a true superstar which isnt to say that we wont get one but we have nothing that has really shone in a stable for all moderation and a season full of whatevers.

Cloth of Stars has been well backed this morning however having only beaten a combined 9 runners in its last 2 races and with the form on offer dubious at best i am not interested in this tied 3rd favourite.
Us Army Ranger won well enough at Chester in the trial but was pretty much flat out and im not sure he will have such an easy passage through in this and will get outstayed but not outbattled if this si still fighting at the 1f pole it will take a good un to beat him but i also feel this race will be won before that so a place at best.

WINGS OF DESIRE does tick all the boxes for me.Proven stayer who will like the conditions and another who won his trial in taking fashion over a trip ( 1m2f ) that many thought actually too short so to win going away was impressive and of course Gosden knows how to ready a winner for this having trained last years victor.
Currently top priced 6/1 ( Stan James ) this looks another top drawer EW Bet and looks ready made to complete a nice EW Trixie for me.

Algometer and Across the Stars at 33/1 and 40/1 look very decent long shots for those wanting some ew fun and with SKYBET paying out on the top 5 at 1/5 odds this is well worth a risk taking on as either could easily run into a place past beaten and tired horses to sneek some place money and this is a bet i would advise.

RESULT :
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17:15
To round off the Place Pot card we have a crazy looking 17 runner hcap over 1m4f.....what a fucking nightmare!!!!!.
Polarisation is very interesting now with Godolphin ( formerly with M Johnston ) and this is one of those best watched as it could win by 10L or blow up 2f out.

Whinging Willie will i am sure be thereabouts along with Senrima and Green Light however im going to have both DURETTO & BARWICK in my pp as i feel both have it in them to get involved with realistic chances of winning and failing that to get placed ( 3 in fact as i will include Polarisation in the pp ).

RESULT :
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Best Bet is an " All stakes returned " Win on the NAP and use the money to pay for a decent EW Trixie on Cartago, Simple Verse and Wings of Desire and include Maljaa in a EW 4 fold ( not bothered about the win as all placed returns a very decent sum ).
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ELSEWHERE.........

1355 Doncaster - DUBAI ELEGANCE -
I am reliably informed this is very serious filly and the yard are excited to see this run and Doyle is there to oversee its debut leaving Buick to mop up at Epsom and the 5/2 looks a very nice price to start.

1440 Hexham - Bobbys Babe & Rajpour

The first Juvenile of the year and its tricky....very tricky however 6f All the way maiden winner Bobbys Babe could easily have enough to fend these off in a poor looking race but its a leap of faith going from 6f to 2m...will he stay..fuck knows thats why ive also included 28/1 shot Rajaapour because its the only one with with known staying prowess in the  pedigree ( by Dalakhani )...in truth this really isnt a bettng race but it lets me know where i am regarding reviewing and lets me interpret my own thoughts.

1830 Curragh - SIR ISSAC NEWTON -
Beaten at long odds on lto this is another quirky bastard from AoB however with several big engagements planned in at RA this WILL have to this or quite simply retire from racing.

A million miles better on hyperbole and at times in racing has looked effortlessly classy but has failed to live upto the hype so its show up or fuck off time for SIN and the 13/8 looks almost too good to be true as i had it at 1/2!!!!!


And that concludes my thoughts for today...good luck and enjoy.

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